The big question remains: What is the fate of the German cannabis industry post-elections?
Germany’s political landscape just got even more intriguing after the federal election that took place last week on the 23rd of February 2025.
The poll results are below: with the percentage of votes obtained by each party on the left, and the number of seats they hold in the Bundestag on the right.
In the end, the Christian Democratic Union’s (CDU) conservative leader, Friederich Merz, emerged as the winner – securing 28.5% support and winning his party 208 seats. However, those in cannabis saw this as a cause for concern as Merz was clear in his stance to abolish the previous government’s cannabis law – even prior to the election.
What the federal election results mean for cannabis legalisation in Germany
For context, in April 2024, Germany removed cannabis from the narcotics list, and introduced a model where adults could legally carry up to 25 grams in public, 50 grams in private, grow up to three plants at home and buy cannabis only through non-profit member clubs. This was initiated by the Traffic Light Coalition that was previously in power – led by the centre-left SPD, together with the business-focused FDP and the environmentalist GREENS (GRÜNE).
Now, however, the cards have been reshuffled. With the CDU in power, and only the SPD and the GREENS with enough seats to fight for cannabis legalisation, the threat looms that Merz may roll back this policy. This spells significant consequences for cannabis patients, as up until now, doctors have been able to prescribe it on the electronic prescription, without the additional bureaucratic hindrances of the BtM prescription. Should legalisation be rolled back and cannabis be subject to strict narcotics law, prescribing would return to being complicated, and patients would ultimately find it more challenging to access their medication.
Economically-speaking, it puts multi-million dollar deals with international cannabis suppliers in jeopardy and could mark a serious step backward for Europe’s cannabis movement. Firms such as Canadian cannabis giant High Tide and US hemp and CBD retailer CBD in Denver have already announced their withdrawal from entering the German cannabis market.
What is the likelihood for CDU to abolish the Cannabis Act (CanG)?
Although the CDU opposes legalisation and wants the current cannabis policy repealed, there are a few factors that suggest a complete reversal is unlikely.
1. Political Coalition
Learning from the inefficiencies of the Traffic Light Coalition led by Olaf Scholtz, Merz has since made it clear that he does not intend to form a three-party coalition, but instead a simpler two-party ‘Grand Coalition’.
As Werz strongly disliked the notion of joining forces with the far-right AfD, he rather hoped to form a coalition with the SPD. And with the poll results announced, this was now possible, as the two parties won enough seats between them to achieve the required majority.
With the CDU and SPD forming this ‘Grand Coalition’, the SPD holds greater influence to resist the CDU’s wishes to rollback on cannabis policy.
Prior to the election, both parties clearly expressed conflicting stances on cannabis legalisation (shown below) and how they would proceed if they were granted power. Thus, with both forming a coalition, a much more balanced approach is likely to take place.
In an interview, René Repasi, a member of the SPD, assures us that CanG will not be revoked.
However, though a complete reversal of CanG is unlikely, stricter regulations are expected primarily for the recreational sector. Furthermore, Pillar 2 legislation will likely not manifest.
On the other hand, for the already established and widely accepted medical cannabis market, it seems all will remain largely unaffected. But stricter controls may come into effect specifically for telemedicine platforms to address concerns regarding patient screening and prescription procedures.
2. More Pressing Priorities
The top priorities that emerged during the federal election – arranged in order of importance – included:
- Special funds for defense
- Immigration
- Energy Prices
- Subsidies for industry
- Social benefits
- Legalisation of cannabis
With the legalisation of cannabis as a letter priority, the current government will be inclined to set the topic aside to focus their agenda on addressing the more crucial matters that affect the country.
3. Larger Geopolitical Issues
With the US President, Donald Trump’s, upending the transatlantic alliance, resetting ties with Moscow and casting doubt on America’s commitment to European security, Merz has publicly questioned the future of NATO with Donald Trump in the White House.
Merz admitted the United States is largely indifferent to the fate of Europe and called for European military independence alongside nuclear powers, England and France. This massive initiative to protect national security demands time and resources that will likely place cannabis legalisation at a much lower spot on the list of priorities.
What we see to likely happen instead
Here are the likely consequences for the German cannabis market:
- Pillar 2 will not come to fruition.
- For the CDU to carry out their promise of reversing cannabis legislation, their first target would be the recreational market. Possible limitations could be the decrease in the penalty-free quantity of cannabis.
- Requiring a license for treatment platforms (i.e., clarification of the term “trade” in Section 4, paragraph 1 of MedCanG)
- Due to more crucial priorities, together with the SPD and the same Health Minister to offer resistance, there will be too many barriers for the CDU to follow through on reclassifying cannabis as a narcotic.
Though these are speculations drawn from a deep review of the German macroenvironment and conversations with industry experts, only time will tell how the recent change in the Bundestag will impact the future of not only the German cannabis market, but also that of Europe.
Opinions from Cannabis Leadership
🟣 Bloomwell Group CEO, Niklas Kouparanis, expresses that while a Kenya coalition would have provided more certainty, the industry should unite and appeal to Friedrich Merz to embrace healthcare innovation rather than resist it. He believes that given current political priorities, even conservative politicians wouldn’t have time to focus on reversing cannabis reforms.
🟣 Enua CEO, Albert Christian Schwarzmeier, highlights five crucial areas to watch: SPD and CDU positions, maintaining current progress, preventing black market growth, healthcare system integration, and creating sustainable regulations. He suggests cannabis isn’t a primary coalition negotiation focus but may be used as a bargaining chip for other issues.
🟣 Artemis Growth co-founder, Will Muecke, emphasizes that Germany’s current medical cannabis framework is functioning well, delivering benefits in healthcare costs, employment, and tax revenue. He suggests the CDU might find compromise through possession limit adjustments.
🟣 CDU/CSU parliamentary manager, Torsten Frei, indicates cannabis reform might not be prioritized in coalition talks. While the CDU will address cannabis legalization, he emphasizes their main focus is on economic competitiveness, immigration control, welfare system reform, and national security – areas where voters expect concrete solutions.
